miércoles, 20 de marzo de 2013

Resultados fondos cuantitativos a febrero 2.013.

En la tabla siguiente podemos ver los resultados del mes de febrero de los principales fondos cuantitativos y su acumulado anual. La media de febrero como podrán ver es de una pérdida de un -1,55%, siendo en el acumulado del año de un beneficio de +0,59%. Un 33,0% de estos fondos llevan el año 2.013 con pérdidas. ¿ Cómo seguirá el año 2.013 ?. Para saberlo tendremos que esperar a mediados de abril. Ciertamente mis resultados de febrero totalmente contrarios a los que estos fondos obtienen ese mes, donde mi cartera global recupero el 100% de las pérdidas de enero y dejó resultado positivo.. Les recuerdo el enlace a mis últimos resultados publicados: Resultados mensuales acumulados. En la tabla siguiente tienen los resultados de los fondos cuantitativos (fuente: automated-trading-system.com):

Organisation / Fund Return YTD * AUM **
Abraham Trading1
-0.80%
0.00%
$284M
Altis Partners2
-5.35%
0.56%
$767M
Aspect Capital3
-3.25%
0.27%
$6,720M
Beach Horizon4
-4.13%
-2.52%
$624M
BlueTrend5
0.00%
0.00%
N/A
Campbell & Company6
0.30%
4.26%
$490M
Chesapeake Capital7
-2.16%
4.58%
$504M
Clarke Capital8
-9.83%
-11.44%
$19M
Drury Capital9
3.00%
3.22%
$349M
Dunn Capital10
16.79%
16.53%
$287M
Eckhardt Trading11
-1.27%
1.95%
$431M
EMC Capital12
-3.60%
1.93%
$105M
Graham Capital13
0.00%
0.00%
$0M
Hawksbill Capital14
-0.52%
1.44%
$117M
Hyman Beck & Co.15
-5.99%
0.79%
$378M
ISAM16
-0.44%
-0.64%
$825M
Man AHL Diversified17
0.00%
0.00%
$0M
Mark J. Walsh & Co.18
-3.53%
-2.09%
$109M
Millburn Ridgefield19
-0.78%
0.71%
$1,023M
Rabar Market Research20
-2.62%
0.39%
$302M
Saxon Investment21
-3.31%
-1.28%
$169M
Sunrise Capital22
-5.35%
-1.90%
$316M
Tactical Investment Mgt23
-4.79%
-3.45%
$84M
Transtrend24
-1.32%
-1.16%
$6,529M
Winton Capital25
0.16%
2.67%
$25,400M
Summary Figures***
-1.55%
0.59%
$45,832M

Notes
* YTD: Year-To-Date performance.
** AUM: Assets Under Management for the program reported here (not total firm AUM)
*** The summary numbers are the mean of the monthly return and the mean of the YTD, with the total sum of AUM, across all managers

Note that the figures referenced in the performance table are not provided directly by any of the funds/CTAs featured in this report, but are sourced from other publications such as hedge fund/CTA websites and databases.

1 – Abraham Trading was founded by Salem Abraham, after he was introduced to Managed Futures and Trend Following by Jerry Parker. He is considered as a “second-generation” Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program. 2 – Altis Partners started trading in 2001 and now manage over a $1B with their Altis Global Futures Portfolio. The figures referenced in the performance table are not provided by Altis Partners and no reliance should be taken as to their accuracy, and as a consequence the figures may not be in accordance with any CFTC / NFA performance reporting requirements.
Program tracked: Global Futures Portfolio.
3 – The four founders of Aspect (Eugene Lambert, Anthony Todd, Michael Adam and Martin Lueck) were significant members of one of the most successful funds in managed futures – AHL (Adam, Harding and Lueck).
Program tracked: Aspect Capital Diversified Program.
4 – Beach Horizon was created as a fully automated trend following subsidiary of Beach Capital Mgt, founded by David Beach. Two of the founders of Beach Horizon had early involvement in AHL.
Program Tracked: Managed Account.
5 – BlueTrend, from BlueCrest Capital, is one of the largest Trend Following funds – headed by Ms. Leda Braga.
Program tracked: BlueTrend Fund Limited.
6 – Campbell & Company is one of the oldest Trend Following firms, operating for around 4 decades.
Program tracked: Global Diversified Large.
7 – Chesapeake Capital was founded by Jerry Parker, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.
8 – Clarke Capital was founded by Michael Clarke in 1993.
Program tracked: Millenium Program.
9 – Drury Capital, Inc., was founded in Illinois in 1992 by Bernard Drury.
Program tracked: Diversified Trend-Following.
10 – Dunn Capital was founded by Bill Dunn.
Program tracked: World Monetary and Agriculture (WMA).
11 – Eckhardt Trading is the firm managed by William Eckhardt, who co-led the Turtle experiment with Richard Dennis.
Program tracked: Standard Program.
12 – EMC Capital was founded by Liz Cheval, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: EMC Classic Program.
13 – Graham Capital was founded in 1994 by Ken Tropin, previously a Director of JWH.
Program tracked: K4-D10.
14 – Hawksbill Capital was founded by Tom Shanks, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Global Diversified Program.
15 – Hyman Beck & Co. main principals are Alexander Hyman and Carl Beck.
Program tracked: Global Portfolio.
16 – ISAM’s main individuals are Larry Hite and Stanley Fink, both instrumental in the success of MAN AHL. Program tracked: ISAM Systematic Fund Class A
17 – Originally ED & F Man, a commodities broker business founded in 1783. Man became a succesful CTA starting in 1983, when partnering with Larry Hite’s Mint Investments. Subsequently Man gradually acquires AHL (1989-1994) to form Man AHL: the systematic trading division of the Man group.
Program tracked: Man AHL Diversified Futures Ltd.
18 – Mark J. Walsh was not an official Turtle but trained and worked closely with Richard Dennis before starting his own fund management business.
Program tracked: Standard Program.
19 – Millburn Ridgefield have been trading Trend Following models since the early 1970′s.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.
20 – Rabar Market Research is the company of Paul Rabar, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.
21 – Saxon Investment was founded by Howard Seidler, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Aggressive Diversified Program.
22 – Sunrise Capital is a CTA based in San Diego. Founded in 1980 by Gary Davis, it merged in 1995 with Commodity Commodity Monitors, Inc., founded by Rick Slaughter in 1977.
Program tracked: Expanded Diversified Program.
23 – Tactical Investment Management was founded by David Druz, student of Ed Seykota.
Program tracked: Institutional Commodity Program.
24 – Transtrend is a Trend follower CTA based in Netherlands.
Program tracked: DTP – Enhanced Risk (USD).
25 – Winton Capital is a London-based CTA founded by Dave Harding (also co-founder of AHL).
Program tracked: Diversified Program.

viernes, 1 de marzo de 2013

Resultados fondos cuantitativos a enero 2.013.

En la tabla siguiente podemos ver los resultados del mes de enero de los principales fondos cuantitativos y su acumulado anual. La media de enero como podrán ver es de un beneficio de un +2,45%, siendo en el acumulado del año de un beneficio de +2,45%. Un 8,0% de estos fondos empiezan el año 2.013 con pérdidas. ¿ Cómo seguirá el año 2.013 ?. Para saberlo tendremos que esperar a mediados de marzo. Ciertamente mis resultados de enero totalmente contrarios a los que estos fondos obtienen ese mes. Les recuerdo el enlace a mis últimos resultados publicados: Resultados mensuales acumulados. En la tabla siguiente tienen los resultados de los fondos cuantitativos (fuente: automated-trading-system.com):


Organisation / Fund Return YTD * AUM **
Abraham Trading1
0.88%
0.88%
$328M
Altis Partners2
6.28%
6.28%
$823M
Aspect Capital3
3.64%
3.64%
$6,937M
Beach Horizon4
1.68%
1.68%
$680M
BlueTrend5
2.74%
2.74%
N/A
Campbell & Company6
3.90%
3.90%
$489M
Chesapeake Capital7
6.93%
6.93%
$509M
Clarke Capital8
-1.79%
-1.79%
$21M
Drury Capital9
0.21%
0.21%
$346M
Dunn Capital10
-0.23%
-0.23%
$248M
Eckhardt Trading11
3.29%
3.29%
$166M
EMC Capital12
5.94%
5.94%
$104M
Graham Capital13
0.98%
0.98%
$2,499M
Hawksbill Capital14
2.01%
2.01%
$115M
Hyman Beck & Co.15
7.21%
7.21%
$403M
ISAM16
-0.20%
-0.20%
$845M
Man AHL Diversified17
1.70%
1.70%
$626M
Mark J. Walsh & Co.18
1.49%
1.49%
$111M
Millburn Ridgefield19
1.50%
1.50%
$1,036M
Rabar Market Research20
3.08%
3.08%
$306M
Saxon Investment21
2.10%
2.10%
$178M
Sunrise Capital22
3.73%
3.73%
$341M
Tactical Investment Mgt23
1.40%
1.40%
$89M
Transtrend24
0.17%
0.17%
$6,668M
Winton Capital25
2.51%
2.51%
$26,400M
Summary Figures***
2.45%
2.45%
$50,268M


Notes
* YTD: Year-To-Date performance.
** AUM: Assets Under Management for the program reported here (not total firm AUM)
*** The summary numbers are the mean of the monthly return and the mean of the YTD, with the total sum of AUM, across all managers

Note that the figures referenced in the performance table are not provided directly by any of the funds/CTAs featured in this report, but are sourced from other publications such as hedge fund/CTA websites and databases.

1 – Abraham Trading was founded by Salem Abraham, after he was introduced to Managed Futures and Trend Following by Jerry Parker. He is considered as a “second-generation” Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.
2 – Altis Partners started trading in 2001 and now manage over a $1B with their Altis Global Futures Portfolio. The figures referenced in the performance table are not provided by Altis Partners and no reliance should be taken as to their accuracy, and as a consequence the figures may not be in accordance with any CFTC / NFA performance reporting requirements.
Program tracked: Global Futures Portfolio.
3 – The four founders of Aspect (Eugene Lambert, Anthony Todd, Michael Adam and Martin Lueck) were significant members of one of the most successful funds in managed futures – AHL (Adam, Harding and Lueck).
Program tracked: Aspect Capital Diversified Program.
4 – Beach Horizon was created as a fully automated trend following subsidiary of Beach Capital Mgt, founded by David Beach. Two of the founders of Beach Horizon had early involvement in AHL.
Program Tracked: Managed Account.
5 – BlueTrend, from BlueCrest Capital, is one of the largest Trend Following funds – headed by Ms. Leda Braga.
Program tracked: BlueTrend Fund Limited.
6 – Campbell & Company is one of the oldest Trend Following firms, operating for around 4 decades.
Program tracked: Global Diversified Large.
7 – Chesapeake Capital was founded by Jerry Parker, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.
8 – Clarke Capital was founded by Michael Clarke in 1993.
Program tracked: Millenium Program.
9 – Drury Capital, Inc., was founded in Illinois in 1992 by Bernard Drury.
Program tracked: Diversified Trend-Following.
10 – Dunn Capital was founded by Bill Dunn.
Program tracked: World Monetary and Agriculture (WMA).
11 – Eckhardt Trading is the firm managed by William Eckhardt, who co-led the Turtle experiment with Richard Dennis.
Program tracked: Standard Program.
12 – EMC Capital was founded by Liz Cheval, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: EMC Classic Program.
13 – Graham Capital was founded in 1994 by Ken Tropin, previously a Director of JWH.
Program tracked: K4-D10.
14 – Hawksbill Capital was founded by Tom Shanks, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Global Diversified Program.
15 – Hyman Beck & Co. main principals are Alexander Hyman and Carl Beck.
Program tracked: Global Portfolio.
16 – ISAM’s main individuals are Larry Hite and Stanley Fink, both instrumental in the success of MAN AHL. Program tracked: ISAM Systematic Fund Class A
17 – Originally ED & F Man, a commodities broker business founded in 1783. Man became a succesful CTA starting in 1983, when partnering with Larry Hite’s Mint Investments. Subsequently Man gradually acquires AHL (1989-1994) to form Man AHL: the systematic trading division of the Man group.
Program tracked: Man AHL Diversified Futures Ltd.
18 – Mark J. Walsh was not an official Turtle but trained and worked closely with Richard Dennis before starting his own fund management business.
Program tracked: Standard Program.
19 – Millburn Ridgefield have been trading Trend Following models since the early 1970′s.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.
20 – Rabar Market Research is the company of Paul Rabar, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.
21 – Saxon Investment was founded by Howard Seidler, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Aggressive Diversified Program.
22 – Sunrise Capital is a CTA based in San Diego. Founded in 1980 by Gary Davis, it merged in 1995 with Commodity Commodity Monitors, Inc., founded by Rick Slaughter in 1977.
Program tracked: Expanded Diversified Program.
23 – Tactical Investment Management was founded by David Druz, student of Ed Seykota.
Program tracked: Institutional Commodity Program.
24 – Transtrend is a Trend follower CTA based in Netherlands.
Program tracked: DTP – Enhanced Risk (USD).
25 – Winton Capital is a London-based CTA founded by Dave Harding (also co-founder of AHL).
Program tracked: Diversified Program.

Resultados hasta febrero de 2013.

Ya acabado el mes de febrero podemos ver los resultados de los sistemas. Para tener una orientación, también publico los completos del año pasado para cada uno de ellos. Los resultados a nivel general han sido muy buenos este mes, registrando ya en el conjunto del año resultado positivo en la cartera global. Este mes de febrero, no sólo han recuperado las pérdidas del mes de enero, sino que han conseguido bastantes sistemas pasar a positivo. Los resultados de la columna de febrero reflejan el del periodo completo de los dos meses en conjunto, reflejando el periodo de 1/01/2.013 hasta 28/02/2.013. Ni que decir tiene que en mi cartera real, que no tiene activados todos los sistemas, estoy por el momento en positivo también, al igual que la cartera global. Cuando los resultados acompañan, las cosas se ven de otro color. Pero asi es el trading, unas veces ganando y otras perdiendo. Veámos los resultados de todos los sistemas con detalle de su drawdown actual: (clica en la imagen para verla más grande y clara).


viernes, 1 de febrero de 2013

Resultados sistemas enero 2.013

Ya acabado el mes de enero podemos ver los resultados de los sistemas. Para tener una orientación, también publico los completos del año pasado para cada uno de ellos.Realmente han sido malos y ni la diversificación en este caso ha dado sus frutos. Veámos los resultados de todos los sistemas con detalle de su drawdown actual:
SISTEMAS RESULTADOS RESULTADOS Drawdown

2012 Hasta 31/01 actual
Sistema RTA30 (Dax): 1.643,00 900,00 -6.277,00
Sistema SPAG (Dax): 13.612,00 -1.285,00 -1.438,00
Sistema CM20 (Dax): 11.522,00 -5.998,00 -11.264,00
Sistema Estacional (Dax): 17.085,00 -2.904,00 -2.904,00
Sistema Estacional (Eurostoxx): 2.936,00 -438,00 -438,00
Sistema AIDE225 (Dax): -10.615,00 -26,00 -13.618,00
Sistema BABO30 (Dax): 4.960,00 -2.710,00 -13.484,00
Sistema XIRT30 (Dax): 1.888,00 3.340,00 -5.612,00
Sistema DCAM30 (Dax): -3.939,00 -1.822,00 -13.357,00
Sistema RANGOS (Dax): 16.715,00 -578,00 -2.571,00
Sistema CANALES (Dax): -2.674,00 -1.152,00 -16.822,00
Sistema PXEMM (Dax): 22.618,00 -3.813,00 -4.117,00
Sistema AIDT (Dax, intradiario puro): 19.414,00 2.151,00 -6.017,00
Sistema DiaT (Dax, intradiario puro): 22.399,00 3.390,00 -645,00
Total Euros: 95.165,00 -14.335,00




Sistema SPAG (Mini SP): 2.092,00 1.932,00 -508,00
Sistema Estacional (Mini SP): 6.089,00 -958,00 -958,00
Sistema ESTAEURO (Euro): 4.130,00 -240,00 -4.675,00
Sistema RTA30EURO (Euro): 2.737,00 -402,00 -4.237,00
Total Dólares: 15.048,00 332,00

Como vemos los resultados no han sido buenos, pero son los que son y no los que quisiéramos que fueran. Vista la situación actual, hay que ser realista y tener claro que hay sistemas que hay que descartar por completo, pues su comportamiento no puede aplicarse en una cartera real no ya por sus resultados mensuales, sino por su elevado drawdown, que mi cartera no puede soportar (y psicológicamente no creo que pudiese).Los datos están extraidos de las estadísticas que proporciona VisualChart.

miércoles, 23 de enero de 2013

¿ Indisciplina , reflexión o miedo ?

El otro día debería haberse abierto posición corta en mi cartera real con el sistema estacional, operación que solo llevo en el simulador en estos momentos. Se debería haber abierto en el futuro del Dax y el del Mini SP. Es un sistema que hace muy pocas operaciones al año y que ya el año pasado hice las últimas tres que se hicieron con un saldo positivo. 
Tras analizar y ver que este enero el mercado estaba (y sigue) totalmente lateral, reflexioné y observé en el histórico que sucedía. Cuando no había tendencia clara o la tendencia es en contra a la posición que abre el sistema, suele ser perdedora la operación, en casi todas las veces que sucede. Por tanto decidí ser prudente en esta ocasión y no realizar en real la operación dado que no tenemos tendencia alguna. Esta prudencia, alguno podría catalogarla de miedo, dado que en una operativa sistemática automática no se debe influir en la misma. Con el tiempo uno ve que determinada operativa (como la de este sistema estacional), es imposible tener en cuenta todos los factores en la programación. La operación del sistema podrá acabar en beneficio o pérdida, inclusive sabiendo que esta noche se publican los resultados de Apple que decantarán y condicionarán seguramente la sesión de mañana y posiblemente el desenlace de la misma.
Creo que a veces es bueno reflexionar y ver las cosas con detenimiento. Aqui no me ha influido el miedo en absoluto ...... o por lo menos asi lo entiendo yo. ¿ Es realmente así ?
Las entradas realizadas en el simulador son en 7.723,50 en el futuro del Dax  y en 1.478,75 en el futuro del Mini SP.

Resultados fondos cuantitativos 2.012.

En la tabla siguiente podemos ver los resultados del mes de diciembre de los principales fondos cuantitativos y su acumulado anual. La media de diciembre como podrán ver es de un beneficio de un +0,67%, siendo en el acumulado del año de una pérdida de -6,13%. Un 72,0% de estos fondos acaban el año 2.012 en negativo. ¿ Cómo seguirá el nuevo año 2.013 ?. Para saberlo tendremos que esperar a mediados de febrero. En la tabla siguiente tienen los resultados de los fondos cuantitativos (fuente: automated-trading-system.com):

Organisation / Fund Return YTD * AUM **
Abraham Trading1
0.66%
-5.59%
$416M
Altis Partners2
-0.48%
-10.07%
$791M
Aspect Capital3
0.67%
-10.69%
$6,739M
Beach Horizon4
-0.84%
-19.51%
$686M
BlueTrend5
1.46%
1.72%
N/A
Campbell & Company6
3.65%
1.23%
$435M
Chesapeake Capital7
-2.52%
-17.81%
$578M
Clarke Capital8
-1.45%
14.99%
$21M
Drury Capital9
1.93%
-4.64%
$342M
Dunn Capital10
2.64%
-18.62%
$244M
Eckhardt Trading11
0.01%
3.92%
$392M
EMC Capital12
1.00%
5.98%
$90M
Graham Capital13
1.91%
-4.25%
$2,667M
Hawksbill Capital14
-0.79%
-13.64%
$113M
Hyman Beck & Co.15
3.67%
-19.63%
$372M
JWH & Co. (as of Sep.)16
N/A
-21.13%***
$91M***
Man AHL Diversified17
0.50%
-6.30%
$641M
Mark J. Walsh & Co.18
1.10%
-5.05%
$108M
Millburn Ridgefield19
1.50%
-5.35%
$1,017M
Rabar Market Research20
0.08%
-6.70%
$295M
Saxon Investment21
-0.82%
-4.46%
$168M
Sunrise Capital22
0.62%
-19.00%
$319M
Tactical Investment Mgt23
-0.19%
0.99%
$94M
Transtrend24
0.50%
0.72%
$6,787M
Winton Capital25
1.35%
-5.36%
$26,400M
Summary Figures***
0.67%
-6.13%
$49,715M

Notes
* YTD: Year-To-Date performance.
** AUM: Assets Under Management for the program reported here (not total firm AUM)
*** The summary numbers are the mean of the monthly return and the mean of the YTD, with the total sum of AUM, across all managers
*** The JWH figures are the last ones reported, in September, before the company shut its fun

Note that the figures referenced in the performance table are not provided directly by any of the funds/CTAs featured in this report, but are sourced from other publications such as hedge fund/CTA websites and databases.

1 – Abraham Trading was founded by Salem Abraham, after he was introduced to Managed Futures and Trend Following by Jerry Parker. He is considered as a “second-generation” Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program. 2 – Altis Partners started trading in 2001 and now manage over a $1B with their Altis Global Futures Portfolio. The figures referenced in the performance table are not provided by Altis Partners and no reliance should be taken as to their accuracy, and as a consequence the figures may not be in accordance with any CFTC / NFA performance reporting requirements.
Program tracked: Global Futures Portfolio.
3 – The four founders of Aspect (Eugene Lambert, Anthony Todd, Michael Adam and Martin Lueck) were significant members of one of the most succesful funds in managed futures – AHL (Adam, Harding and Lueck).
Program tracked: Aspect Capital Diversified Program.
4 – Beach Horizon was created as a fully automated trend following subsidiary of Beach Capital Mgt, founded by David Beach. Two of the founders of Beach Horizon had early involvement in AHL.
Program Tracked: Managed Account.
5 – BlueTrend, from BlueCrest Capital, is one of the largest Trend Following funds – headed by Ms. Leda Braga.
Program tracked: BlueTrend Fund Limited.
6 – Campbell & Company is one of the oldest Trend Following firms, operating for around 4 decades.
Program tracked: Global Diversified Large.
7 – Chesapeake Capital was founded by Jerry Parker, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.
8 – Clarke Capital was founded by Michael Clarke in 1993.
Program tracked: Millenium Program.
9 – Drury Capital, Inc., was founded in Illinois in 1992 by Bernard Drury.
Program tracked: Diversified Trend-Following.
10 – Dunn Capital was founded by Bill Dunn.
Program tracked: World Monetary and Agriculture (WMA).
11 – Eckhardt Trading is the firm managed by William Eckhardt, who co-led the Turtle experiment with Richard Dennis.
Program tracked: Standard Program.
12 – EMC Capital was founded by Liz Cheval, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: EMC Classic Program.
13 – Graham Capital was founded in 1994 by Ken Tropin, previously a Director of JWH.
Program tracked: K4-D10.
14 – Hawksbill Capital was founded by Tom Shanks, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Global Diversified Program.
15 – Hyman Beck & Co. main principals are Alexander Hyman and Carl Beck.
Program tracked: Global Portfolio.
16 – JWH & Co. was founded by John W. Henry, now also owner of the Boston Red Sox.
Program tracked: Global Analytics.
17 – Originally ED & F Man, a commodities broker business founded in 1783. Man became a succesful CTA starting in 1983, when partnering with Larry Hite’s Mint Investments. Subsequently Man gradually acquirs AHL (1989-1994) to form Man AHL: the systematic trading division of the Man group.
Program tracked: Man AHL Diversified Futures Ltd.
18 – Mark J. Walsh was not an official Turtle but trained and worked closely with Richard Dennis before starting his own fund management business.
Program tracked: Standard Program.
19 – Millburn Ridgefield have been trading Trend Following models since the early 1970′s.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.
20 – Rabar Market Research is the company of Paul Rabar, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Diversified Program.
21 – Saxon Investment was founded by Howard Seidler, a former Turtle.
Program tracked: Aggressive Diversified Program.
22 – Sunrise Capital is a CTA based in San Diego. Founded in 1980 by Gary Davis, it merged in 1995 with Commodity Commodity Monitors, Inc., founded by Rick Slaughter in 1977.
Program tracked: Expanded Diversified Program.
23 – Tactical Investment Management was founded by David Druz, student of Ed Seykota.
Program tracked: Institutional Commodity Program.
24 – Transtrend is a Trend follower CTA based in Netherlands.
Program tracked: DTP – Enhanced Risk (USD).
25 – Winton Capital is a London-based CTA founded by Dave Harding (also co-founder of AHL).
Program tracked: Diversified Program.

martes, 15 de enero de 2013

Y asi empezamos el año.

Ya estamos a 15 de enero y podemos empezar a hacer un balance inicial de la quincena. Ciertamente desde el inicio del año hasta hoy el movimiento del mercado ha sido de un completo lateral, que sólo el gap al alza del primer día del año ha provocado las alzas de los mercados. Asi las cosas, los sistemas tendenciales tienden a fallar y a pasarlo bastante mal. Sigo, naturalmente, con mi operativa en real con los sistemas RTA30, CM20, SPAGV1 y uno de los estacionales aplicado al futuro del Dax y al futuro del Mini SP. El resto de sistemas están unos en fase de revisión, aparcados o simplemente continúan en fase avanzadísima y cerca de entrar en real. Asi las cosas puedo decir que los resultados de los sistemas en estos primeros 15 días son los siguientes (tomando los datos de las estadísticas de visualchart):
  • RTA30: -1.129 euros
  • CM20: -3.565 euros
  • SPAGV1: -212 euros
  • BABO30V1: -1.924 euros
  • XIRT30V1: -765 euros
  • DCAM30: -3.119 euros
  • AIDE225: -90 euros
  • CANALES: -2.269 euros
  • RANGOS: -3.328 euros
  • ESTAEURO: +487 dólares
  • RTA30EURO: +3.212 dólares
Está claro que el inicio del ejercicio 2.013 está siendo malísimo para la operativa de mis sistemas. Incluso hay sistemas que de por si ya los tengo descartados totalmente, pues los drawdowns generados el año pasado los hacen económicamente inviables.  Vista la situación, y a pesar de que la mayoría de los sistemas están en el simulador, la situación se hace complicada. De momento tranquilidad, paciencia y disciplina. Sobretodo para con los sistemas en real, que a pesar de estos resultados iniciales, se mantienen sus estadísticas dentro de resultados totalmente normales y esperables.